GC ForeCat has predicted that the Gulf Region is most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming on shore in the U.S. in 2009. The research compares 1951 to 2007 average landfall rates to the January 2009 forecasted landfall rate – 0.41 to 0.50 respectively. The forecast model uses hurricane trends from 1951 to 2007, taking into account climate/ocean data, water temperature and El Nino/La Nina, while incorporating “hold-one-out” analysis.

In addition, WSI Corporation, a company offering weather-driven business solutions, released their 2009 Atlantic hurricane forecast. The firm predicts 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes will develop this year – all numbers which are higher than the 1950 to 2008 averages.

Let's hope these findings are exaggerated. As the economy is predicted to be far from healed this hurricane season, one thing Americans do not need is a costly natural disaster.

Emily Holbrook
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