P&C Premiums Projected to Double by 2040

Hilary Tuttle

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November 1, 2021

A stack of white blocks forming a staircase, with each block labeled with an arrow aiming diagonally up, implying that rates are rising.

According a recent Swiss Re sigma report, global property and casualty premiums will more than double over the next 20 years, soaring from $1.8 trillion in 2020 to as much as $4.3 trillion in 2040. Economic development remains the key driver of rising property premiums, but as weather-related catastrophes become more intense and more frequent, the report projects that climate change and associated risks will increase global property premiums by 22%, or up to $183 billion.

Swiss Re also expects social inflation to increase the frequency of large verdicts and settlements, particularly in the United States. As a result, liability premiums may grow by an average 4.7% per year, from $214 billion in 2020 to $583 billion in 2040. Climate change effects, artificial intelligence, and social and legal changes may also fuel long-term growth in liability. Emerging markets will represent some of the greatest global sector growth for the property and casualty market, growing from 20% to 33% of total premiums.

Hilary Tuttle is senior editor of Risk Management.