In a year when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting up to 19 named storms, including as many as five major hurricanes, data modeling is as crucial as ever for organizations to prepare for the worst. However, critical resources may soon be compromised or even eliminated altogether.
In light of the Trump administration's funding and staffing cuts to the agency, NOAA and the insurance industry are grappling with the potential discontinuation of a database of climate and weather information that many have long relied on, marking a pivotal moment for insurers, brokers and catastrophe modelers.
This rollback comes at a uniquely volatile time. According to NOAA's latest seasonal outlook, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has a 60% chance of being above average. The agency expects between 13 and 19 named storms this year, six to 10 of which may become hurricanes, and up to five could reach Category 3 strength or higher.
In recent years, we have been seeing an increase in storms and more powerful, fast-developing systems, sometimes reaching major hurricane status in less than 24 hours. The Trump administration is cutting the data that once enabled us to understand and prepare for these patterns on the precipice of the highest-risk storm season and, more broadly, at a time when the climate is becoming more dynamic and less predictable.
The cuts do not just increase threats to coastal or hurricane-prone regions. Inland flooding, wildfires, hail and freeze events have increased in frequency and severity. NOAA's datasets have helped illustrate and anticipate these shifts, guiding everything from local zoning policies to national reinsurance pricing.
A Foundation for Forecasting
NOAA has been a source of free, unbiased and scientifically rigorous environmental data for decades. Universities, climate researchers, emergency managers and even local news stations rely on NOAA’s data to do their jobs. Like GPS, it is a foundational infrastructure that quietly powers everything from academic research to real-time storm tracking. In the insurance industry, data from NOAA powers the risk models, actionable risk management recommendations and long-term forecasts that organizations rely on to assess climate-related exposures.
One of the key value propositions NOAA provides to the insurance industry stems from the breadth and credibility of its data. It collects real-time and historical information from sources that private companies cannot replicate: thousands of oceanic buoys measuring water temperatures and tides; weather balloons launched across the country; radar data; and aerial assessments. This data feeds into catastrophe models that insurers and reinsurers use to price risk, set capital requirements and anticipate loss trends.
NOAA’s tracking of billion-dollar weather events is equally important. These aggregated datasets show where and when disasters occurred and quantify the losses. Insurance brokers use these insights to communicate with organizations about why specific markets are hardening, why rates are rising and how shifting climate patterns are changing risk profiles in coastal and inland areas.
Without these tools, insurers may struggle to distinguish between a short-term anomaly and an emerging trend, leading to more conservative underwriting or pricing based on uncertainty rather than insight.
When Public Data Disappears
Losing access to NOAA’s comprehensive datasets could trigger a domino effect and weaken the industry’s ability to accurately model and price catastrophic risk. This raises the possibility of incorrectly pricing policies, whether through under-insurance that leaves clients exposed or over-insurance that prices them out of coverage.
Further, a shift from publicly available data to proprietary sources could drive up costs across the industry. Private data providers often charge high fees and format their data for specific commercial uses, making it harder to integrate into the broad modeling systems already built around NOAA's raw datasets. While some private firms do excellent work, questions remain about the continuity, transparency and scientific rigor of these alternative sources.
The result could be greater uncertainty in an industry that thrives on precision and potential instability in a marketplace already grappling with historic weather losses.
Steps to Take Now
While the full impact of NOAA’s reductions will unfold over time, the following are some specific steps corporate risk managers can take now to safeguard resilience in an uncertain data environment:
- Ask your partners about the data behind their risk models. Push for transparency when reviewing insurance proposals, CAT models or property risk assessments. What data sources are informing these models? If your insurer or broker relies heavily on a single source or cannot explain their assumptions, they may be underestimating your exposure.
- Demand diversified modeling inputs. In your requests for purchase or renewals, encourage the use of multi-source data approaches. Diverse inputs from satellite feeds or local weather station archives can help mitigate blind spots in forecasting, especially as NOAA’s role changes.
- Stress-test insurance structures and business continuity plans. With modeling becoming less certain, revisit worst-case scenarios. How would your insurance program respond to a Category 4 storm or rapid-onset flood event? Can your business continuity plan withstand a 1-in-100-year event that now occurs every five years?
- Engage in industry dialogue and advocacy. Join groups and coalitions that advocate for continued access to reliable, public climate data.
Looking ahead, climate data must be recognized as core infrastructure, just as critical as financial oversight or regulatory frameworks. In a future defined by accelerating climate change and growing loss severity, access to high-integrity, real-time environmental data is essential to effectively manage risk.