As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins, most major weather forecasters are predicting above-average activity, potentially marked by increased risks of rapid intensification and U.S. landfalls. While last year’s advanced reports predicted a “hyperactive” season, this year’s forecasts are less extreme but still anticipate more activity than the 10-year average, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting a 60% chance for an above-average season and only a 10% chance of a “below-normal” season.
In predictions reports from Accuweather, Colorado State University (CSU), NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk, the UK Meteorological Office and The Weather Company/Atmospheric G2, forecasters generally aligned on an elevated number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes for 2025. These projections ranged from 13 to 19 tropical storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, compared to 10-year historical averages of 17.9 tropical storms, 8.1 hurricanes, and 3.7 major hurricanes.
While this year’s hurricane season has officially begun, it is never too late to prepare. Although Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, the highest activity tends to be concentrated in a “season within a season.” According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, CSU chief research scientist, 95% of major hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5) have occurred between August and October, which represents just 50% of the season. Whether preparing for this season’s storms or future fortifications, this year’s hurricane season predictions reports and 2024’s actual results offer insight into the 2025 season, highlight key natural catastrophe trends, and provide lessons for disaster preparation.
Lessons from 2024 and Factors for 2025 Hurricane Season
Moving into hurricane season, the 2024 season highlighted a number of key trends and lessons to review, and potential signs of what may come in 2025:
Disasters in Quick Succession
In some areas, last year’s storms demonstrated that hurricane season can be a marathon rather than a sprint. While many organizations begin preparations in earnest if and when major storms form, the 2024 season featured several hurricanes in quick succession. For example, Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 4 on September 26, and the region was struck again just two weeks later when Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 on October 9. Milton also brought a tornado outbreak with a confirmed 46 tornadoes—a new record for the most tornadoes in any modern outbreak.
Although individual storms may not necessarily be historic in strength, responding to repeated severe storms and their knock-on effects with little recovery time in between has posed significant challenges for companies and public entities alike. Utility services and insurance systems are also acutely strained by the increased number of major disasters and reduced time between them, complicating business continuity, operational resilience and insurance recovery in the wake of disasters.
Organizations should also understand that emergency services are already significantly impacted in such scenarios, meaning some help from local government or emergency services may be either unavailable or extremely delayed. Risk professionals and others involved in emergency planning should therefore consider a broader range of challenges when scenario planning to bolster preparation for natural disasters. It is imperative that organizations know how they will respond in the face of natural disasters and account for scenarios in which some public emergency services cannot necessarily be relied upon.
This may become a particular issue in 2025 due to the Trump administration’s cuts to federal departments such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and national weather forecasting services. Under the Trump administration, FEMA has lost a quarter of its full-time staff, including a fifth of the coordinating officers who manage disaster response. Firing of many meteorologists at NOAA, including in high-risk hurricane regions, may lead to less accurate forecasts.
Rapid Intensification
“Rapid intensification” was a major theme of last year’s hurricane season. On July 2, 2024, Hurricane Beryl not only became the earliest Category 5 storm to form in the Atlantic basin, but it also demonstrated the perils of rapid intensification—a wind speed increase of at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours. Beryl went through two rounds of rapid intensification, going from a tropical depression to a Category 5 storm in just 42 hours, largely fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters. Hurricane Milton also underwent explosive strengthening, going from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in 24 hours.
Climate scientists have been warning about the increasing risks of rapid intensification in recent years, particularly as warm sea temperature conditions persist. Forecasting and emergency preparedness are greatly hampered by rapid intensification, potentially leading to deadly consequences if individuals, businesses and public entities have not been able to adequately prepare by the time quickly strengthened storms make landfall. Inland communities or those that have not been historically as at-risk from hurricane perils may also face particular challenges as other disasters tie up federal emergency resources and local preparedness is not as strong for hurricane-related risks.
High Sea-Surface Temperatures and the Impact of La Niña
While sea surface temperatures are not as high as last year, they remain above average in 2025. Warm ocean water can lead to both more intense storms and a greater number of them. Other factors being equal, the deeper and warmer the water is, the stronger the storms that form above it as the heat content contributes energy to fuel storm development.
Forecasters also predict reduced trade winds during the 2025 season, and weaker winds mean less disruption as storms develop. Some forecasters believe a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions may occur during the season, which would also lead to more intense storms in 2025 as La Niña brings less wind shear that could help break up developing storms.
El Niño versus La Niña conditions can be one of the biggest influences on a hurricane season. “In general, La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons have less wind shear that can otherwise rip storms apart, and rising, unstable air that is more conducive for thunderstorms, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes,” according to the Weather Channel. “This means instead of El Niño acting as a gentle brake on hurricane season, La Niña could instead step on the gas pedal.”
Steering Shifts Toward U.S. Landfalls
“Steering patterns” refer to large-scale wind currents in the atmosphere that guide the path of major storms, ultimately helping determine if they will move toward land or out to sea to break up. Researchers at The Weather Company and forecasting firm Atmospheric G2 reported their long-range computer models suggest the pattern of winds that guide hurricanes could steer more toward the U.S. coastline this year. Persistent above-average temperatures in certain regions of the Atlantic may also contribute to steering more storms to make landfall in the United States.
Colorado State University estimated a 51% chance that at least one major hurricane would make landfall along the U.S. coastline, which marks a notable jump from the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020.
Parallels to Severe Seasons Prompt Calls for Caution
As part of its most recent analysis, CSU’s report compares current atmospheric and ocean patterns to similar years in the past, drawing comparisons to several highly active seasons including 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2017. These years may stand out in the memory of veteran risk professionals as those seasons saw several major storms make landfall. The 2017 season, for example, was marked by Hurricanes Harvey, Irene and Maria, which caused a total of approximately $92 billion in insured losses. CSU’s forecasters noted the concerning comparison and urged caution.
“This year’s setup has a lot in common with those past seasons that brought serious impacts,” said Klotzbach, who was lead author of the report. “Even if just one storm hits a vulnerable area, that is enough to make the season devastating locally.”
NOAA also noted parallels in this year’s predicted conditions to past severe seasons. According to NOAA’s May 22 prediction report, “This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.”
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we have never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you are ready before a storm threatens.”
Insurance Coverage for Hurricane-Related Risks
Severe weather trends and climate change are leaving more and more organizations vulnerable to devastating storms, and a growing number are not adequately insured for hurricane-related risks. In fact, according to a recent Nationwide report, insurance agents estimate that at least 40% of the commercial customers they serve are underinsured for such risks. In addition, as storms strike vulnerable areas with increasing frequency and severity, many insurers are exiting high-risk markets such as Florida. This results in growing exclusions or wholly unavailable coverage. There has also been increasing peril in areas not typically impacted by hurricanes, which may result in losses for businesses that have not traditionally had to consider insurance coverage for hurricane-related damages. Last year, Hurricane Helene offered a tragic reminder of this growing issue, devastating inland communities such as Asheville, North Carolina.
Whether looking to fill holes in your insurance program or simply to maximize insurance recovery, consider the following insurance lines that may respond to hurricane-related losses:
- Property insurance
- Business interruption insurance
- Contingent business interruption insurance
- General liability insurance
- Flood insurance
- Specialty insurance policies
Risk and insurance professionals should also note that an organization does not need to incur material damage in order to have insured losses. “Even policyholders lucky enough to escape the wrath of a severe weather event may suffer a loss of business income in the aftermath,” according to Joshua Gold, policyholders’ attorney at Anderson Kill. “Remember that you may have insurance coverage for business income losses or business operations disruption due to the damage suffered by essential business partners or customers, or for disruptions in the surrounding area, even where your own property makes it through the storm undamaged. Civil authority, contingent business interruption, service interruption and ingress/egress coverage may well provide coverage for losses of business income when property damage takes place away from the policyholder’s premises.”
9 Essential Pre-Storm Tips for Hurricane Season
With storm season looming, the following tips can help risk professionals ensure business continuity, keep employees and property safe, and promptly file insurance claims for maximum recovery:
1. Review All Insurance Policies: Thoroughly examine your commercial property, business interruption and other relevant policies for hurricane season. Make sure that all corporate locations and assets are accurately listed. Confirm coverage for wind, flood and storm surge, and pay particular attention to any applicable deductibles, sublimits and exclusions. Proper and prompt notification is a key part of filing successful insurance claims, so carefully review each policy to confirm your insurer’s requirements for initial notice and the usually hard deadline for sworn proof of loss.
2. Fortify Physical Assets: Develop and update plans to secure your facilities and equipment against hurricane-force winds and potential flooding. When major storms form, fortification materials can be tricky to source, and supply chain challenges may make this a particular challenge. Make sure your organization has the essential materials on hand to rapidly implement your protection plans, reinforce structures and secure your premises.
3. Map Out Business Continuity and Financial Impact Scenarios: Beyond general disaster recovery, examine how a hurricane event could affect specific operations and financial flows, including potential revenue losses and extra expenses. Outline these impacts for different potential disaster scenarios. Establish protocols for tracking potential revenue losses and extraordinary expenses in a format that will be suitable for insurance claims. If complex financial recovery is a significant concern, consider proactively identifying and pre-qualifying experts to assist, like forensic accountants.
4. Centralize and Secure Key Records: To help minimize operational interruptions, make sure key documents are available remotely, such as off-site storage and cloud-based systems. Create and test a system for securely storing and easily accessing all critical corporate records, including insurance policies and financial ledgers, as these will be key in filing prompt and detailed insurance claims after a disaster.
5. Document Covered Property and Assets: Capture pre-loss photos or videos of your property and make sure they are available in off-site or cloud-based storage that will remain accessible if you are forced to close or operate remotely. This is a convenient way to document the condition of covered property and aid future claims.
6. Test Emergency Communication Protocols: Develop clear communication plans for all stakeholders, both internal and external, to ensure you can stay in touch with employees and leaders in different disaster scenarios. These plans should include multiple communication channels and define clear roles and responsibilities for incident response. Practice these protocols before a storm to ensure everyone knows their role and can act effectively under pressure. Depending on the nature of the business, consider whether you also need protocols for communicating with customers or key business partners.
7. Update Employee Contacts: Verify all employee emergency contact information is current and easily accessible to relevant personnel. Consider updating this information to include details across multiple modes of communication in case some services are down in the wake of a disaster. Communicate clear safety protocols, evacuation procedures and return-to-work guidelines to your entire workforce well in advance.
8. Assess Supply Chain Resilience: Actively engage with critical suppliers and vendors to understand their hurricane preparedness plans. Identify and, if necessary, establish relationships with alternative sources or delivery methods to minimize potential operational disruptions.
9. Reassess Property Valuations and Replacement Costs: It is critical to reevaluate your property’s current valuation and estimated replacement costs. Persistent supply chain challenges and inflation have significantly increased material and labor costs. That seems likely to get worse with the tariff turbulence under the Trump administration. Underestimating these costs could lead to substantial underinsurance, meaning your organization may not be able to secure full recovery after a loss. Make sure your policies reflect these updated valuations to guarantee adequate coverage for rebuilding or repairs.